The Middle East is witnessing a true revolution. There is a huge wave against the medieval structures of government in the Middle East - the absolute monarchies and the family of dictators.
The force that is propelling change is modern capitalism in the Middle East - driven by the huge prosperity of the oil commodity in a powerful global commodities market.
Oil is king ( to paraphrase 'the coal is king' phrase of the English Industrial Revolution) of the modern economic revolutions going on in the world (specifically the Asian economic revolution impacting on populations of several billion, but also the West and Japan).
The Middle east middle classes are becoming a force. The population of the Middle East are using Facebook and Twitter to organise the revolutions.
The true middle classes can create a democratic Middle East. However, the model of this can vary between constitutional monarchy model (which I think is a positive direction for many Middle Eastern countries through a process of managed change from the top meeting the aspirations of the population from below) and a new secular democracy with a genuine multi-party model specifically in 'democratic' (one party) states.
The dynamism of the Middle East middle classes can be under-estimated. Obviously, there is a real strain between the old order and the new aspirations. However, I saw the clear dynamic nature of the impact of globalisation in the Middle East - using Dubai as a role model of globalisation and its ability to create 'openness' in the Middle East to modern forces and modernisation. The more open attitude towards the West in Dubai is healthy. Equally, Dubai has relaxed its attitude towards Eastern religions (e.g. Sikhism, Buddhism, Hinduism, etc.).
The essential ingredient in the modernisation of the Dubai was the development of it as a global entertainment and leisure centre. This could not happen without accommodating the modernising forces of globalisation. It is iron - but the religious extremists attack the entertainment and leisure markets (as forces of corruption). I see the entertainment and leisure industries as forces of freedom and the creative impulse. As I stated earlier on this blog, I believe the primary motor force of capitalism is the creative impulse (and not the profit motive, which is a very powerful secondary force). So this is what creates freedom in capitalism and what enables the creative side to have space.
Dubai has been one of the great success story of Middle East capitalism and globalisation. I believe that democracy has to be combined with freedom for the creative impulse and political freedoms. Dubai may be able to adopt a managed process of the constitutional monarchy model. I believe that this model is possible in the Emirates and the Sheikhdoms.
Capitalism means freedom. The winds of change are blowing across the Middle East. They are wonderful winds - creating protection against the harshness of the old medieval order. They are winds of change that can sweep aside the 'Islamic fundamentalist' reactionary forces. I am always hopeful. I clearly side with the forces of progressive capitalism in the Middle East. I think there is a need for an urgent debate to head off a disaster in terms of Western policy on the Middle East.
However, this process requires boldness with its risk too. My view is that the risk for Middle East instability and the threat of the 'Islamic fundamentalism' is severe. It is better to anticipate this force and seek to head it off through the adoption of political reform. For instance, the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt poses a severe risk to taking the Middle East backwards (with its politics similar to those of Hamas and Iran). Equally, the republican states in the Middle East have to create democratic pluralism with political and media freedom. The lack of freedoms allows the 'Islamic fundamentalism' to grow stronger. It is better to take the bold steps for reform rather than allow the anti-Western and anti-globalisation forces to take over.
I believe there is another central issue to the question of reform. To defeat the 'Islamic fundamentalism', it is essential to address the issue of the rights of women in the Middle East. I believe all the globalisation forces can adopt better positions than the reactionary forces of 'Islamic fundamentalism' on this issue. This means opening up the labour market to women, opening up the social space to women (especially the entertainment and leisure industries), enabling women to have equality in the political space, opening up the education sector to women and also women to decide how to dress in public. This is a revolutionary proposal for some Middle Eastern countries especially the Sheikhdoms and Emirates, however in many of the republican countries - this proposal is building on the existing progressive stance of 'Arab nationalism' on this question.
There has to be progress on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. The right of Israel to exist is used as an excuse by the 'Islamic fundamentalist' forces. Hamas - as a wing of the Muslim brotherhood - deliberately sabotaged the land for peace deal between Israel and the Palestinian National Authority. This has created a disaster for the Palestinian population of Gaza (which Israel left as part of the deal) and a crisis for the West Bank (less so than Gaza in terms of economic and political and human rights misery including for women) - as well as a retraction by Israel of the land for peace deal by it losing faith in the strategy. It is important that Israel is recognised as a state across the Middle East. This issue has to be addressed urgently. There should be only be a tiny minority backing Hamas as a force in the Middle East (even in Iran there must be pressure on this issue against the current anti-democratic regime with its attacks on the 'Green Revolution').
I have a vision of a peaceful, pluralistic and modern Middle East. I believe that opportunities are created for this Middle East by the current developments in the Middle East. This battle is by no means won - and serious dangers of the extremists exists. However, i believe that urgent reform can take the wind out of the extremists and enable even bigger economic development to take place in the Middle East - by a new openness to modernisation, globalisation. women's equality, embrace of Israel as a legitimate state within the Middle East and a pro-Western and pro-Eastern stance.
The Middle East can be a success story of the globalisation of the 21st century at an economic, political, social and cultural level for the benefit of the women and men of the region.
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